Tonight’s update actually qualifies as an Eye of the Storm Podcast – tonight I do get into detail as to the “building blocks concept” but moving the count forward using the concept in real time and not historic. How I put a check on expectations. Corrective patterns – expectations and trading.
Monday’s trade was chock full of “short” covering, that caught a “trend” and brought in much needed buyers to “even” the markets out a bit. Having said that the strength and tenacity of the buyers did surprise me at first, but once I was able to piece the Elliott count together to more accurately fit what was actually happening and added what I discussed late last week and yesterday regarding the upcoming tech titans’ earnings due out this week, I saw what finished at this morning’s 13184 low. To that point I have updated the Elliott labeling to reflect the completion of what I believe is only minute wave 1 of Minor wave 3. Not to sound like a broken record – but no, the larger count and picture has not changed – no, the FED has not miraculously brought inflation under control and no longer needs to raise rates – and no, the other situations flaming up here and there have not been resolved. For example, in China there is major concern over another major outbreak of COVID in Beijing. Putin is again threatening the West on resupplying Ukraine with weapons. No, the market doesn’t know anything over the rest of us as to how the earnings for AAPL, AMZN, FB, GOOGL, and MSFT will affect the markets.
What we do know is that nothing goes straight up or down. As I have been discussing while the downside should continue as traders we need to allow for bounces, where some will be larger than others. Today being a great example. To that point I have updated the Fibonacci retracements for what I am perceiving as a minute wave 2 A-B-C correction now underway. I know there have been several first and seconds waves, but in my own defense I have discussed previously that on the way down, all the “3rd” waves will subdivide and likely do so more than once. And that is what is happening to the letter or number!
Until we start to see how the titans’ earnings will come out, I would suggest that the buyers will remain pushing to get back in. Minute wave 2 now in progress, still needs to break above the hourly 50 MA at 4298. Here is the list of tech titans’ reports due this week -NVDA 4/25, GOOGL 4/26, MSFT 4/26, PYPL 4/27, FB 4/27, AMZN 4/28, and AAPL 4/28.
Resistance for minute wave 2 comes in at 4315 (38%), 4352 (50%), 4389 (62% and the hourly 200 MA). The major fireworks in either direction should begin tomorrow with GOOGL and MSFT.