August 11, 2022

S&P 500 / Elliott Wave Update 8/10/2022 by Michael Filighera

Wednesday’s trade was truly amazing.  As I mentioned last night, I wouldn’t be surprised if once the CPI is reported that the markets are “jammed” higher and that is exactly what happened.  The initial move was over 300 points and took about 2 minutes to get there.  The ES did break above yesterday’s 4188 high, but I suspect that it will tomorrow.

For tomorrow, the PPI and Jobless Claims will both be released premarket.  At this juncture I would suspect we will get a similar response from the markets.  Although, the Jobless Claims depending on what the change may be could put a damper on the upside party mood or contribute to the fun with a boost to the rally.  The ES once above 4209 should find resistance at the Daily 200 EMA at 4220. A break there brings resistance up to Fibonacci resistance at 4227.  A break there starts to broaden resistance levels but look for 4250 to 4337 for now.

The Elliott pattern continues to suggest that the ES is getting close to completing the corrective pattern off of the 3639 low.  In the case of view #1 that would be completing a Minor wave 2.  In the case of view #2 that would be completing Intermediate wave A of a Primary B wave countertrend rally.  Both views do suggest a turn lower is close to taking over.  Once it does it will be a while before I’ll be able to work out which view is in control and what that then suggests for the ES.