Friday’s trade started with a rejection of the latest “employment situation” numbers. This took the ES from the Globex high at 4173 to session lows at 4102. The high may have completed the countertrend rally that is currently labeled as a Minor wave 2 (view #1) or Minor wave “C” and in turn Intermediate wave A, (view #2). At the moment there remains the potential for another run higher to complete the countertrend rallies, so I am leaving open that potential and in the ES that would suggest a run above 4200 may still be in the works.
However, the other side of the coin suggests the Minor degree waves up are complete and the next decline is now underway. That would be a Minor 3rd wave down, (view #1) or Minor wave “A” of an Intermediate “B” wave down. The difference in the counts would be the depth of the declines underway. View #1 carries the stronger potential for a larger decline with a break below 3639 being required. View#2 carries downside potential but limited with the pattern itself creating an A-B-C structure and the low not breaking below 3639.
This week the market should make direction clear and then we’ll look to the Elliott counts to keep us in line with how deep and far.