Monday’s trade was very much in “summertime” mode. Slow and light volumes. The ES, though, did manage to push to a high at 4147 within the first hour of trade and the promptly sank to the session low at 4097 and then it got slow. With regard to the 2 views, I am currently tracking both remain on equal footing as to which is ultimately going to follow through.
For tomorrow, I am continuing to leave open the potential for the rally to continue and reach 4151 and most likely beyond. The EW count as shown remains tracking a Minor wave 2 countertrend rally. Within wave 2 the ES remains tracing out wave “C” of 2. Resistance to complete the Minor wave 2 comes in at 4151 to 4185, and then it jumps to a zone from 4212, 4238, 4250 to 4278 and then 4328.
I also continue to feel that the end of the current rally will be “news” driven as I believe it will take a sucker punch to knock the wind out of the buyers. There are many possible causes scattered around the country and the globe. In any case should the downside get triggered I would expect a quick drop down through the 4h 20MA, the 50’s both EMA and SMA, and then the 200’s both EMA and SMA and I would expect that to be the “kick off” for the next leg down.