Thursday’s trade was filled with incredibly profitable moves and that would include upside and downside moves. The ES opened and marched lower reaching session lows early at 3992. From that point the buyers took over and kept control for the balance of the session. Yes, there were tradeable declines, but the bulk of trade was to the upside with the larger moves being advances. The ES reached a high at 4105 after AAPL and AMZN reported and is pulling back as Globex begins.
I have brought forward the “other” alternate view that I have been running in parallel with each other. With today’s strength and the indication that the potential for additional gains I have relabeled the chart to reflect the Intermediate wave C still being in force – within wave C – Minor wave 1 completed at the 3639 low, with the advance off of that low being a Minor wave 2 countertrend rally. Within wave 2 – waves ‘a’ and ‘b’ are complete with wave ‘c’ appearing to be in its finishing stages. I have also added Fibonacci retracements for the balance of wave 2.
Should this count be the chosen path – upon completion expectations would be for a quick and sudden reversal – most likely triggered by a “news” event. The market should begin to break quickly below hourly moving averages and slide through hourly Fibonacci support. It should be clear that the “trend” has resumed and that would be the “downtrend”.
For tomorrow, it is expiration and there will a great deal of adjustments being made as stocks jockey for strike prices. Fibonacci resistance has also been added and discussed in the update.