Thursday’s trade carried much of the recent periods of “choppy” directionless trading that eats away at ones PNL quickly. It has been frustrating at times particularly during the first hours when there has been and usually is volatile in terms of the speed at which the ES will zip higher and lower. In terms of the current EW count, the ES continues to move through a “C” wave to finish the Minor degree wave 4. Within wave “C” waves 1 and 2 are complete and wave 3 is or nearly complete currently. If this is the case – there would still be needed, once wave 3 is done, a 4th wave dip and a 5th wave rally. There remains the possibility that this finishing moves will take the ES above 4000 and up into the 4000 handle — there remains Fibonacci resistance at 4075.
Should for whatever reason the ES break down from current levels – it will likely be “news” driven and maybe have momentum and purpose to move lower. Breaking the 50 and then the 20 MA’s and breaking below 3800 would begin to shut the door to a move higher and usher in the Minor wave 5 decline needed to complete the larger Intermediate wave C and in turn the Primary wave A.