Monday’s trade saw the ES trade initially higher in what appears to be the completion point for wave C of Minor 4. The high was reached within the first hour of U.S. trade at 3909. After a couple more hours of choppy trade, AAPL announced some adjustments to currently hiring quotas and compensation packages. That produced a thrust like move off the highs and down to session lows at 3820.
I initially show the Elliott labeling as a completed triangle with the addition of waves D and E – thus the Minor wave 4 under this assumption would also be completed. The initial thrust that did start today added some support to the pattern being complete. However, confirmation is still needed before I will add the Minor 4 label. That confirmation may continue during Globex and should break below 3800, 3700, 3638 and then 3600 to give a very clear signal that the Minor wave 4 is complete.
The other side of the coin suggests that wave C of Minor 4 completed today with the move lower being part of Wave D. If this is the case, additional downside may be likely and should it occur I would expect it to hold above the lower channel line which currently is above 3700. If Wave D is in force and holds support – look for wave E (up) to take over and again bring the ES back towards the upper channel line at 3909 to complete the triangle and the Minor 4. Again, should this be the case, the same expectation of the ES “thrusting out of the triangle” would remain. A bit longer term I am still expecting a Minor wave 5 to bring the ES below 3639 and down towards support at the 3225 area.