Friday’s trade and expiration fell into the expected pattern and moves with all the indexes finishing strongly higher. In the ES it is not clear yet as to whether the triangle pattern is complete or extending within. I’m giving the benefit of the doubt to the Minor wave 4 correction still being in progress and within it likely still within wave C. If this is the case, the buyers will remain in control for another 60 to 90 points.
For Monday, allow for a continued rally to carry the ES closer to 3920 to 3950 before wave C is complete. Still expected then will be a “D” wave decline and an “E” wave advance – all taking place within the triangle channel lines in place now. Once the triangle is complete the expectations remain for a thrust out of the triangle to the downside as Minor wave 4 completes and Minor wave 5 takes over.
Should the ES miss the upside market and break down from current levels which are 3870 as I write this, then expectations would be for a “thrust” like start to be in play, with the moving averages being broken quickly on the hourly chart. Support and resistance levels are given in the update.