July 1, 2022

S&P 500 / Elliott Wave Update 6/30/2022 by Michael Filighera

Thursday’s trade was more in “trend” which does for many make for a nicely profitable day.  As I suspected the first hour provided some very   profitable trades.  The ES did continue to fall and found early support at 3741.

I am leaving open the potential for the ES to turn tail and run higher and if tomorrow contains thin trading it won’t necessarily take very much to move the likes of AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, AMZN, and a few other titans.  A run higher would also fit within the context of a continuing Minor wave 2 corrective bounce.  Within the Minor wave 2 – waves A is complete at 3948 and wave B very likely at 3741 – this then suggests that wave C is next up and should kick things into gear with a strong push back above 3820 for starters. The hourly 200 EMA is 3825.  There would be additional resistance and potential for a continued run with Fib extensions remaining on the chart for reference.

Tomorrow is a weekly options expiration beware of “gamma squeezes” adding a little “beta” to moves in both directions.  At this juncture I have to remain with a 50/50 probability of either direction catching “fire” and holding for the day.   Downside support remains at 3735 and then 3693 to 3639.