Wednesday’s trade was quiet and mostly range bound. The ES put in the session high and low within the first 30 minutes of trade. Spending the balance of the session forming what looks to be a small wedge. I have moved the labeling back to reflect an Intermediate degree A-B-C pattern in progress where waves A and B are complete and wave “C” is still unfolding. Within wave “C” thus far only Minor wave 1 is complete with Minor wave 2 likely still in progress. While there is a possibility that Minor wave 2 completed at Sunday’s Globex high at 3948, the market has not given confirmation that this is the case yet.
For tomorrow, I will continue to leave open the potential for a larger Minor wave 2 being underway — this would suggest that the a-b-c labeled on the chart would be completing wave A of Minor 2 with the current action being all or part of wave B. Again, if this is the case a stronger C wave rally would still be expected and that move would carry potential for a move up to 4019 to 4036.
A continued breakdown from current levels would begin to support more strongly that Minor wave 2 is complete and the Minor 3rd wave down is underway. If this is the case, expectations would be for an additional smaller leg down to complete 5 waves down off the 3948 high and would be labeled as minute wave 1 of Minor wave 3. Support for this move comes in at 3796 to 3693, with a small minute wave 2 countertrend bounce being expected once wave 1 of 3 is complete.