June 16, 2022

S&P 500 / Elliott Wave Update 6/16/2022 by Michael Filighera

Thursday’s trade was for the better part of the U.S. session a continuation to the downside.  The ES did move to new lows after breaking below 3700 eventually reaching 3642 before bouncing up into the close.  I’ve made a couple of adjustments to the Intermediate “C” wave in progress since the March 29th high at 4205 The first being the Minor degree labeling and then also within what is now the Minor wave 5 down.

Tomorrow is a quadruple expiration and is being reported to be larger than the March expiration.  That being said, the question has been which side of the market would likely be the target for expiration.  A week ago, the market appeared positioned to continue higher into tomorrow, which did not occur. The “alternate” view instead took over with the markets moving strongly lower smashing strike prices along the way.  So, long story short, the adjustments were towards the sell side.  That may continue into tomorrow’s expiration with the continued slide through strike prices.  Of note would be the heavy titans in the tech sector.  AAPL again saw several additional strike prices tossed as the stock sank below 130.

I don’t feel that the markets have reached the lows just yet.  The patterns leave open the potential for additional slides to occur.  In the ES a more solid break below 3623 drops support into a “black hole” with next support coming in at 3556. Upside then would be expected to remain forming 3 waves bounces. For now, I will continue to use the moving averages as point of resistance.  Particularly the 20 and 50 MA’s.