Wednesday’s trade was tricky at times but overall, the ES along with the other markets performed fairly close to expectations and thoughts I included in last night’s update. Initially the ES did slide lower reaching 3723 before again turning higher. Once Powell began the news conference the ES along with the other markets began to see some stronger buyers move in and as Powell continued so did the buying. The ES reached a high at 3843 before catching a stronger downdraft which ultimately trimmed about 50 points off the rally.
For tomorrow I am continuing to allow for additional upside to complete what remains best viewed as a minute 4th wave correction. Fibonacci resistance comes in at 3885 to 3893 with the hourly 200 MA above at 3931. A break above that level would begin to negate further downside for now and suggest a move back towards 4000 was in the works. Downside from here is also a strong possibility and should the ES break below the hourly 50 and the hourly 20 MA’s it would give support to today’s high being the completion point for the wave 4 correction with minute wave 5 then being in force. Downside support for minute wave 5 remains at 3698, 3626, 3559, and then 3383