Monday’s trade continues to keep current analysis in check. The ES basically produced another “inside” day although a lower low was created today at 4104, which basically is where the hourly 200 MA is sitting. There are no changes to make. The upside view as well as the downside view remain active and in play. The market remains influx as to direction that will be sustainable for the next week or so.
For tomorrow, I continue to favor the ES being in the process of tracing out a Minor wave 2 countertrend correction. Within wave 2, the ES has completed wave “A” at last Friday’s 4202 high suggesting that wave “B” of Minor 2 remains in force for now. The ES may still drop down to support at 4074 to complete wave “B” of Minor 2 and set the stage for a stronger rally back up and over 4202 as wave “C” of Minor 2 unfolds. Wave “C” once underway carries the potential for an ultimate climb back above 4220 with resistance first being found at the Daily 50 MA at 4176, Fibonacci resistance should be found at 4220 and then 4316. The Daily 200 MA sits above it all at 4245.
Stronger downside would begin to support that the Minor wave 2 correction is complete at last Friday’s 4202 high and that Minor wave 3 down is underway. If this is the case, I would be looking for confirmation via the break(s) below the moving averages and below support and ultimately a break below 3807 would seal the deal that Minor 3 is in full swing.