May 23, 2022

S&P 500 / Elliott Wave Update 5/23/2022 by Michael Filighera

Monday’s trade basically picked up where Friday left off.  The ES continued to move higher from the opening and appears to be in the beginning stages of the 2nd leg up of the wave 4 correction.  The noticeable caveat is that the ES has yet to break above the hourly 200 MA at 3980 which it needs to do and give additional support to the market moving higher in a 4 wave.

The markets just reopened and gapped lower — the ES has opened at 3950 down 36 — Here we go again folks — can’t yet say the upside is over and the “alternate view” is back in play — and that would be that the Minor 3rd wave has bottomed and the Minor wave 4 correction has topped and now the Minor wave 5 decline has kicked into gear and we are in the next leg down which puts the ES back on track to break lower and eventually reach support at 3460.  Support for this being the case would come from a persistent and accelerating slide — a break below 3900, a break back below 3850 and 3800. Fibonacci support for Minor wave 5 kicks in at 3739, 3634, and then 3466 to 3403.   The break below 3900 should/would negate stronger upside for now and drop support into a somewhat larger “black hole”.  There should be support at the large round numbers 3900 and 3750.  The next Fibonacci support comes in at 3739.  To find price support we are going back to 2021 to 2020 to find it.  So, yes, we are at that point of recognition again.

Ultimately, I am continuing to look at support from 3466 to 3403 to contain and complete the 3rd waves up to and including the Intermediate wave 3.  And this should set a stronger stage for an Intermediate wave 4 bounce.  For now, folks — trade what is in front of you — use the moving averages, use the Fibonacci levels — use the Elliott preferred and alternate views —