Monday’s trade was a day of “wallowing” – the ES put in session highs late in the session at 4043 – the balance of trade was mostly chop filled with sudden bursts of buying and/or selling. A very typical “B” wave indecisive day.
The Elliott count and labeling remain unchanged – the ES remains in the process of tracing out a minute wave 2 bounce. The market continues to carry the potential and at this point continues to carry a 50% probability of moving above 4042 and then 4134 to 4221 to complete the bounce. Same picture as to what will be expected once wave 2 is complete. That being a resumption of the larger Minor wave 3 in the form of a minute wave 3 – so yes, again another 3 of 3 type move.
Look for stronger acceleration with moves through support at 3994 to 3944, 3893 to 3846, and then 3722. In fact, the market should not have any problems moving down and through 3853 announcing its arrival. Downside support for minute wave 3 comes in at 3722 to 3700. Ultimately expectations are for the ES to drop to support at 3364 to complete Intermediate wave 3.