Friday’s trade was interesting and very profitable. The ES initially saw some buyers move in via AAPL, FB, TSLA, and MSFT as early expiration “wishes” were let loose. That was short lived-in as the upside lasted all of 30 minutes before the sellers moved back in and resumed the trend which is down. The Elliott count remains the same in that the ES complete minute wave 2 at Thursday’s 4303 high. Friday’s 4265 high then completed a smaller degree 2nd wave with the smaller 3rd wave kicking in and taking the ES down over 140 points.
For Monday, expectations remain for minute wave 3 to continue. This thought would gain support on a break below 4100 and I do expect the ES to break that level and continue lower. I would be looking for bounces to be small and held by resistance via the 8, 20, and 50 MA’s. Support comes in at 4114, 4100, 4090 to 4069 and then 4037 to 3990. Ultimately, minute wave 3 is likely to complete between 3836, 3781, and then 3691, which is Fibonacci .618 support.