Thursday’s trade was awesome. The ES opened and immediately pushed to the session high at 4509. I initially felt that finally the ES would move up to resistance above the 4500 level and complete Minor wave 2. But as they say, ” the best laid plans….” and that for certain was true today. The ES dropped quickly off the high as the sellers moved in and moved in with purpose. The downside pressure grew stronger as the session moved forward. The ES broke back below the 200, 50, 20, 8 and 4 MA’s before eventually breaking below support. As I said yesterday, the unfortunate part of the ES declining was that I would have to wait until a break below 4400 occurred before I could put a top and label on Minor wave 2. Plus, the volatility in the markets over the past couple of days allowed for a larger swing higher or a larger swing lower to occur and for the ES to remain in the process of tracing out a Minor 2nd wave correction. However, once the break below 4400 happened with follow through, the ES reached the session low at 4380. For tomorrow – it is a weekly expiration cycle and there should be a great deal of movement. Large moves force adjustments across the board in the options. The ES on the hourly chart is moving into being strongly oversold so I would be expecting as some point a bounce higher. The market may decline to next support before bouncing but we should expect it. With Minor wave 3 now in force – support for the Minor 3rd wave comes in at 4369, 4336, 4311, 4288, and then 4229. Ultimately, I am looking for the ES to reach support at 4055 before Minor wave 3 completes. Rallies at this point will occur but I’m not expecting anything more than a bounce up to relieve any oversold readings.
April 21, 2022