April 6, 2022

S&P 500 / Elliott Wave Update 4/06/2022 by Michael Filighera

Wednesday’s trade followed through to the downside as expected.  The ES did break several Fibonacci support levels before putting in session lows just above the 4441 level.  The small rally off the lows did give a glimmer towards 4441 possibly being the completion point for the “C” wave of the Minor “B” wave in progress.  But the rally fizzled leaving open the potential and likely the creation of a 5th wave of “C” down.  Additional support starts at 4441 to 4427 and then 4408 to 4364 which is where there is overlap between wave “C” of Minor “B” and the total Minor “B” itself.  If scenario one is to continue holding the “first” position, the ES would need to start to rally off the low and move back above 4500 without much hesitation or problems as the ES moves higher to trace out the Minor “C” wave advance to cap off the Intermediate wave 2 corrective bounce.

A continued break down below 4364 would give support to scenario two being in force – where the high at 4361 becomes the completion point for Intermediate wave 2 with Intermediate wave 3 being underway off that level.  If this is the case I can suggest that the drop down to 4501 was Minor wave 1 of  Intermediate 3 with the high at 4588 being wave 2 of 3.  Then the drop thus far off of the 4588 high is the first leg down to kick off the Minor wave 3 of Intermediate 3 decline.  And if this is the case the ES would be in a downdraft that with more certainty feel somewhat “crash” like.  Support for the move continues at 4360, 4276, 4193, 4131 to 4074 and then 3923 (where a Fibonacci level would mark wave 3 = wave 1). While it could contain the downside – I would look for the total Intermediate 3rd wave to drop the NQ to 3756, 3652, and ultimately to 3485 before an Intermediate 4th wave bounce takes over.