Tuesday’s trade chose scenario one as presented on last night’s update.  The ES continued to rally during globex nearly reaching above 4589. By the time the US markets opened the ES was heading lower and remained in that mode for the balance of the session.

The first scenario remains the same in that the ES remains in the process of tracing and internal “c” wave within a bit larger “b” wave.  This being the case should continue to see the ES move lower first below 4501 and ultimately to a zone from 4485 down to 4457 before Minor wave “C” of Intermediate wave 2 begins a 5 wave advance.  Yes, back above 4588 and likely back towards 4631 and above.   The second scenario carries the ES back down to 4457 but doesn’t stop there.  The Elliott count remains the same except Intermediate wave 2 ended at 4631 and the ES is in the initial stages of an Intermediate 3rd wave decline.  The move would then be expected to break through support from 4407, 4371, 4366, 4327 to 4277, ultimately reaching below 4101. The third scenario would require the NQ holding to the parameters of #one, but carry a larger upside payload.  Where the NQ could get close to the 16768 high.  More on this should it get engaged.