Monday’s trade did not move outside of any parameters set with yesterday’s analysis. The ES did manage to move to a new high for the sequence at 4473 before starting to decline. Initially I was looking for the formation of 5 waves down on the hourly chart and felt the ES was off to a good start in putting that in. However, it bounced off of the hourly 50 MA and then rallied into the close which leaves a 3 wave pattern down thus far. That does leave the potential for continued upside before the Minor wave 2 correction is complete, which keeps the potential alive for a move above 4473. Fibonacci resistance comes in at 4523 and then 4569. There is also price resistance at 4485 and again at 4500. Downside would need to be confirmed by a stronger break below the hourly 50 MA at 4417 and then support at 4380. Confirmation of the Minor wave 3 being in force would be the formation of 5 waves down on the hourly chart which would include a solid break below the hourly 200 MA.
March 21, 2022