Thursday’s trade was more of an “inside” day over what we have seen on Tuesday and Wednesday. It was still volatile but not as easy to trade with moves in both directions becoming erratic and creating periods of pure chop. Nonetheless the ES did make it above yesterday’s 4367 high and in the last hour or so of trading, eventually reached a high at 4407. I have labeled the “c” wave that began off of Tuesday’s 12949 low and thus far I can count and label waves 1 -4 of the 5 needed to complete wave “C”. However, I can count the last 5th wave as complete, but will give the benefit of the doubt to the ES reaching close to 4415. If the market breaks above 4416 it would force the reevaluation of the count thus far off of the all time highs. If though Wave “C” and in turn minute wave 2 are complete at the 4407 high the expectations would be for a minute wave 3 decline to begin. As I have discussed previously I would expect the market to slide lower with greater intensity and purpose suggesting it will be brought on by some sort of news event. My expectations would be for the market to slide and break below the 20, 50 and the 200 MA’s without much hesitation or pause. I would also be looking for a quick 5 wave down to be formed on the hourly chart to confirm the change. I review again the alternate view should the NQ continue to rally higher — the next break point to flip the count to the alternate comes in at 4416.
March 17, 2022