Tuesday’s trade was a surprise lesson in volatility, intensity, and distance. The ES did put in a new low at 4129 during the Globex. The market did begin to rally immediately off that low and started to pick up steam as the U.S. session approached. Initially, I thought the bounce in progress should be on the small side with the markets turning lower again to complete another leg down within the current count. That as we now know didn’t happen. The markets continued to rally for the entire session producing just one red bar and nine green bars in total on the hourly chart off the 4129 low. It was an impressive feat to watch in the face of what the market is anxiously waiting for and should receive tomorrow. The FED decision will be revealed at 2 PM EDT. As far as the ES goes, I suggest allowing additional upside to reach next resistance at 4268 and 4293 to 4300 both Fibonacci resistance levels. Currently I have adjusted the labeling to show the low at 4219 as the completion point for the subminute wave 1 with subminute wave 2 still in progress. Wave 2 cannot break above 4325. Should that occur it would negate the current count and returns us to the Alternate View, which remains as the minute wave 2 still be in progress and if that is the case expectations would be for the ES to eventually get back above 4300 and closer to 4400 before minute wave 3 would be expected to begin. Downside scenario – if 4268 to 4300 contains additional upside with the market turning and heading lower — expectations would be for it to move quickly and decisively – without pause and without buyers attempting to get back in — Volatility will skyrocket and the NQ would be expected to break below 4130 very quickly.
March 15, 2022