March 13, 2022

S&P 500 / Elliott Wave Update 3/13/2022 by Michael Filighera

Sunday’s Globex session thus far has been a slight rally with the ES reaching a high at 4219 thus far.  It wasn’t a surprise after Friday’s trade consisting of 9 hourly red bars of selling.  Yes, there were upside moves within those hours but on a closing basis the hourly chart registered 9 red bars down.  However, just before the selling started the ES did manage to race up to 4236 also during Globex.  It is this high that I have moved the completion point for the minute wave 2.  I do feel more confident that minute wave 3 is now unfolding with Friday’s selling giving strong support to this being the case.  For now I would be looking for another small leg up to resistance at 4223 to 4237.  If though the NQ breaks below 13277 it would suggest that the small subminute wave 2 is complete and the minute wave 3 is progressing lower again.  Support for the decline comes in at 4176, 4154, 4129, 4107, and then 4047 .  The lower support levels remain in play to complete the minute wave 3 with support for the Minor wave 3 coming in at 3990, 3861, 3934 and then 3874.  Also, in force at the moment is an Intermediate wave 3.  Intermediate wave 3 does project down to support 3819, 3768, 3624, and then 3572 before completing.  The conclusion would be that there is plenty of downside movement to complete before a larger more sustained rally would be expected.  Also please keep an eye on volatility — with the volatility above 30 as measured by the VIX signals that moves to the downside and upside will be fast and move greater than might be expected.