Sunday’s Globex session thus far has been a slight rally with the ES reaching a high at 4219 thus far. It wasn’t a surprise after Friday’s trade consisting of 9 hourly red bars of selling. Yes, there were upside moves within those hours but on a closing basis the hourly chart registered 9 red bars down. However, just before the selling started the ES did manage to race up to 4236 also during Globex. It is this high that I have moved the completion point for the minute wave 2. I do feel more confident that minute wave 3 is now unfolding with Friday’s selling giving strong support to this being the case. For now I would be looking for another small leg up to resistance at 4223 to 4237. If though the NQ breaks below 13277 it would suggest that the small subminute wave 2 is complete and the minute wave 3 is progressing lower again. Support for the decline comes in at 4176, 4154, 4129, 4107, and then 4047 . The lower support levels remain in play to complete the minute wave 3 with support for the Minor wave 3 coming in at 3990, 3861, 3934 and then 3874. Also, in force at the moment is an Intermediate wave 3. Intermediate wave 3 does project down to support 3819, 3768, 3624, and then 3572 before completing. The conclusion would be that there is plenty of downside movement to complete before a larger more sustained rally would be expected. Also please keep an eye on volatility — with the volatility above 30 as measured by the VIX signals that moves to the downside and upside will be fast and move greater than might be expected.
March 13, 2022