Monday’s trade was picture perfect in terms of what I look for in a “3 of 3” type move. The ES after gapping lower on Sunday’s Globex opening did manage to put in a low at 4238 before putting in a decent bounce. That bounce carried over into the opening of the U.S. session with the ES filling the gap created on Sunday and reaching a high at 4325. I’ve updated the labeling to reflect the progress thus far within the minute wave 3 down in progress off of Friday’s 4361 high. Minute 3 will consist of 5 waves of subminute degree of which waves 1 and 2 are complete and wave 3 possibly nearly so. While subminute wave 3 maybe complete at today’s 4181 low I would allow for additional downside to bring the ES to support at 4176 to 4163. Once complete look for a subminute wave 4 bounce. Initially using today’s low the retracements show the possibility for a move back to 4200 to 4221. What we are looking at currently are additional 4th wave bounces and 5th wave declines to finish the moves on subminute. minute, and Minor degrees. Once those levels are finished it would complete the Intermediate wave 3, which sets up the ES for an Intermediate wave 4 corrective bounce. In all, there remains a fair amount of downside activity to play out before the next larger more sustainable bounce begins. Support levels for the subminute, minute and Minor degree declines are covered in tonight’s update.
March 7, 2022