Tuesday’s trade continues to provide enough volatility to produce solid trading opportunities in both directions. The ES reached a high at 4399 during the Globex session and at the moment I’m marking it as the completion point for the Minor wave 2 bounce. The turn lower then is likely the first wave down within a larger Minor wave 3. At this stage though, while expectations would be for the decline to continue and break below 4275 and 4200 without much trouble, should the ES rally back above the 200, 50, and 20 MA’s it would leave a 3 wave structure down from 4399 to 4275, and suggest that another run up to resistance at 4430 to 4444 was in progress. The buyers are still willing to step in with some degree of force to push the ES easily up off the lows. If, the decline picks up steam overnight look for a break below 4275 and then again at 4250 with the market likely heading towards 4215 to 4163 as the larger Minor 3 decline drops in a “3 of 3 ” move.
March 1, 2022