Thursday’s trade was astoundingly surprising for many. Russia did invade the Ukraine and that initially sent the market into a deep dive lower. The ES started the session down over 100 points which didn’t last very long once the opening was in place. The buyers jumped and bought for nearly the entire session. Although it wasn’t always an easy trade and there were plenty of runs up followed by a run downs all within a one to five minute time frame, trading was basically profitable. So although it looks and felt as if the ES went straight up – it did present its challenges. On an Elliott basis I have updated the chart by labeling the 4101 low as the completion point for minute wave 5 and in turn Minor wave 3. I did discuss last night the potential for a Minor 4th wave bounce to begin and said the most common area for a 4th wave correction to reach is within the price territory of the 4th wave of one lesser degree. That as shown on the chart gave the ES upside potential to reach back above 4300. The ES nearly accomplished that today. Therefore, while I need to allow for additional upside reaching next resistance at 4343. Also, the Minor 4th wave may be complete. If this is the case a Minor 5th wave decline would begin. The initial move should bring the ES back below 4215 and 4185 and eventually to a new low below 4100. Yes, I’m still expecting additional downside before the next larger more sustainable bounce higher begins. Let’s see what tomorrow brings being an expiration I’m not feeling there will be a great deal of downside pressure without strong outside pressure. We may have to wait until Monday for any conclusion to the current Elliott count.
February 24, 2022