February 15, 2022

S&P 500 / Elliott Wave Update 2/15/2022 by Michael Filighera

Tuesday’s trade was a bit of a surprise in that during Globex the ES rallied strongly against the backdrop of an ease in the tensions surrounding the possible threat of the Russian military moving into the Ukraine.  The move itself did not break any Elliott rules, but it did put a pause in how I was labeling the decline thus far.  The larger pattern remains intact as well as the one degree higher count in that the ES is dropping within the beginning stages of a Minor degree 3rd wave.  As I have discussed previously a 3rd wave is most often the longest and the strongest within a 5 wave impulse move.  While the decline did take place it really hasn’t up to this point shown stronger acceleration or strength to the downside.  As I have also discussed this raised the possibility that within Minor wave 3 what I have been labeling as minute waves would end up being subminute degree with the low at 4353 being the completion point for minute wave 1.  I have made that change after today’s trade.  So, long story short, the ES complete minute wave 1 at 4353 and remains within a minute wave 2 correction.  Resistance to complete wave 2 comes in at 4470 and then 4496 with additional Fibonacci resistance at 4519.  Once complete expectations remain for a stronger more persistent decline in the form a minute wave 3 of Minor wave 3 or “3 of 3” move.  Again, this move would be expected to take out the 4353 low as well as the 4212 low and most likely find support to complete below 4100 down to 3990.