Monday’s trade was less volatile than what was seen last week, but still included some strong rallies and declines. The ES did manage to drop to a new low during Globex at 4354, which is best viewed as being the completion point for the minute wave 3. This suggests that today’s action during the U.S. session was most of the expected minute 4th wave bounce. It appears that the ES will need a bit more rally before the move is complete with resistance coming in at 4413 to 4428, which I would believe could contain the move. The hourly 50 MA is just above at 4436 and again at this point I would not be expecting a stronger move to reach above the 50 MA. Once wave 4 is complete the ES is still expected to drop again under a minute wave 5 decline. Support for the move can be estimated to come in at 4279, 4259, 4241, 4217, and then 4192 to 4185.
February 14, 2022