Friday’s expiration trade kept the volatility moving in both directions.  The ES traded in a more narrow range than of late, but the upward momentum that is carrying over as the Globex session begins is a more positive note for the upside to continue.  Since the Globex open the probability scale rises to 60/50 on up/down direction.  Upside needs to pick up the pace stay above 4714 and  head with more conviction towards 4730.  This will be more convincing that the ES has cleared last weeks high and mount a more sustainable rally towards next resistance at 4730 to 4740.  Downside from current levels would also need to prove itself by beginning to break below the hourly  20 and 50 MA.  That would set the stage for a continued drop with the hourly 200 MA next in line at 4649’ish.  Fibonacci support lies below at 4669, 4643, and then 4604 to 4600, with the “no break level” at 4570.