Monday’s trade during Globex saw the ES reach resistance just below 4700 at 4697, which did seem to give support to the ES completing wave 3 of the Minor 5th wave advance. That came to a complete stop as the ES turned and started to move lower with some persistence and speed. In the process the ES got close to breaking below 4661 but held at 4667 and again turned higher. The NQ on the other hand did break back below support which once again left the existing structure off of the 15986 low as 3 waves up, suggesting that the NQ is putting in a more complex Minor 4th wave correction. Where does that leave us in terms of what to expect tomorrow from the ES. Well, unless the ES break below 4661 the upside would remain intact. If this is the case I’m inclined to feel the NQ will follow suit or actually lead the ES higher. That being said I am giving a 50% probability for either side to be dominant on Tuesday. I’ve laid out both sides on tonight’s update. If wave “c” of 4 is in play look for a new low under 4625 before the next rally phase takes hold. A break above 4697 would signal that Minor wave 5 is still in play and look for the rally to break higher towards 4715.
November 15, 2021