Friday’s trade was again in line with current expectations and count(s). The ES reached 4465 on Friday with the start of Globex pushing prices to an early high at 4469. That is within 3 points of the “don’t break level” at 4472. It would seem unlikely that a major sell off will begin as the markets are heading into a stronger week for earnings reports – pullbacks notwithstanding. Therefore I am looking at the stronger potential for the ES to break above 4472 – I make the necessary changes to the degree count and labeling with what is currently labeled as Intermediate wave 1 and 2 would become an “A” and “B” wave – of what degree I’m not certain just yet. What is currently labeled as Minor wave 1 at 4260 would become a “C” wave, which would form an “A” wave of one degree higher. That would place the upside move off of 4260 as the “B” wave of one degree higher. Having said that within the “B” wave – a 3 wave structure – the ES would be in the finishing leg up which ultimately would be expected to break above 4472 with potential then, to break to new all time highs. We need to market to now tell us which move it will take. Continue to trade smart, trade what is in front of you and use the moving averages, Fibonacci and Elliott to guide you in either direction. Don’t get “married” to either the upside or downside, don’t get stubborn with a position in either direction – be open to trade the volatility which will increase in both upside and downside moves – making it more important to trade smart.
October 17, 2021