Monday’s trade continued to pull out the stops to the upside. The volatility remained strong as did the buyers. The ES held support at 4415 during the Globex session and broke resistance at 4444 early in the U.S. session. As I discussed the break above the hourly 200 MA at 4432 brought a strong round of acceleration that took the market up above 4475. The ES continued higher with the MA’s lining up to guide trade to next resistance at 4500. I discuss on tonight’s update the current count and the alternates scenarios for both the upside and downside. The “no break zone” remains at 4597 for now. A break above that level would bring about a relabeling and the strong possibility that the Intermediate wave 1 is complete and Intermediate wave 2 is well underway. As I discuss in tonight’s update I’m leaning strongly towards relabeling the current count. Should that occur it doesn’t change the longer term forecast where the 4808 high completed the several degrees of advance. It does though bring about the potential for a much stronger decline getting ready to begin and that would come in the form of an Intermediate 3rd wave down. For tomorrow trade smart – don’t fight the upside or downside – stay in line with what the market is telling us. As long as the volatility remains high trading should remain solid with more opportunities and profitable trades.
February 1, 2022