January 31, 2022

S&P 500 / Elliott Wave Update 1/30/2022 by Michael Filighera

Friday’s trade continued the high volatility and profitable trading trend and here’s hoping it continues for another week or so.  Apple’s earnings gave the stock a strong boost on Thursday which did continue into Friday’s trade.  The overall trend for the day was basically up and the last hour of trade so a very strong push with the ES jumping up over 60 points.  Nonetheless, while it remains possible for the upside to continue it is likely to be limited to the 4427 to 4444 area and not be the start of a stronger upside move.  I present both the upside and downside views for Monday’s trade and either would still fit the current Elliot count.  The ES may still be in the process of tracing a more complex Minor wave 4 correction and if this is the case an additional rally would likely be the finishing move on the second “C” and likely complete the wave 4.  The downside scenario suggests that the high at 4444 remains the completion point for the Minor wave 4 correction with a Minor wave 5 leg down underway.  Within wave 5 the ES has completed wave 1 of 5 at 4263 and wave 2 of 5 at 4427 the current globex high.  If this is the case wave 3 of 5 is in progress now and expectations would be for the ES to begin to accelerate lower breaking the hourly 8, 20 , and 50 MA along the way.  Support comes in at 4363, 4353, 4337, 4319, then 4242, 4213, and 4185 to 4117.