Monday’s trade was again amazing and extremely profitable. The volatility remained strong and that was evident to both the downside and upside moves. The ES initially was down big from the opening reaching a low at 4212, which I have marked as the completion point for minute wave 5 and Minor wave 3. The screaming rally that took place off that low is likely the Minor wave 4 bounce and what a bounce it is. The ES after being down over 100 points ended the session up over 20 points. What can we expect from here? I have added Fibonacci retracements for wave 4 and the ES basically reached the 38.2% level at 4413 and I can see an a-b-c structure – however I can’t count it complete just yet. At this juncture I do need the market to tell me. For tomorrow upside resistance remains at 4413 to 4420 and then 4475, 4536 to 4544 (hourly 200 MA). The “no break level” is up at 4573. A break above that level would negate the downside count and leave a 3 wave decline in place off of the all time highs at 4808. Which would then force a relabeling of the advance to the all time highs and reignite the potential for a finishing Intermediate degree advance again to new all time highs above 4808. For now though, I’m allowing the ES to tell me what the intentions are and where it is headed. Support comes in at the hourly 20 MA at 4363 and then 4336 with a break there dropping support at to the 4212 level and below.
January 24, 2022