Monday’s globex trade did not offer any changes to make to current analysis. The ES does appear to still be working through a wave 3 decline to complete the larger Minor wave 3 within the initial declines of a larger degree correction. Within wave “3” I’m counting as complete wave 1 and possibly 2 of “3”. We need to allow for the small wave 2 bounce to still be in progress with a move towards the hourly 200 MA at 4686 in the works. The move itself does not necessarily change the downside view but does allow for a rally up towards the hourly 200 MA. Thus far Globex trade is holding within a tight range basically between the hourly 50 and 20 MA’s. Expectations remain for wave 3 to pick up to the downside with acceleration taking place. Ultimately the ES should reach 4503 to 4447 to finish wave 3 of “3” with the entire Minor wave 3 still likely to complete at Fibonacci support at 4357.
January 18, 2022