Thursday’s trade was very revealing to our near term picture. The ES did give the rally a good try but it did fail. The failure brought out several rounds of sellers which eventually swamped the four major indexes creating what I call a “Billy Graham” sell off. Back to the ES – the market did break below a few “no break” zones the first was the break of the hourly 200 and 50 MA’s. This happened just after to the ES broke below the hourly 20, 8 and 4 MA’s. The acceleration was already in motion as the market passed thru the 50 MA. Next up was support at 4696 and the final breaks were below at 4683 and then 4670 and 4660. I am continuing to look at this move as a part of the smallish wave 2 correction within an ongoing subdividing 3rd wave advance. The ES is getting close to important break levels that would likely cause I an Elliott count and labeling change and suggest the ES is within the very beginning stages of a much larger correction. While the chart does favor additional downside taking place, the 4627 level needs to hold in order to keep the current labeling intact and valid. A break below 4572 would begin to negate upside potential with a break below 4520 being the last nail in the rally’s coffin.
January 13, 2022