Monday’s trade was very much in line with yesterday’s analysis. The ES fell into the support zones discussed on yesterday’s update – in fact the ES exceeded support at 4630 and 4605 before reaching the low at 4572. The bounce off of the low was exactly what I was looking for to give some support to the low being the completion point for the Minor wave 2 correction. I have updated the charts to reflect the end of Minor 2. The resulting rally traveled 72 points off the low and was stopped by the closing bell. What I look for from here is the formation and completion of a 5 wave advance on the hourly chart. Thus far as discussed it appears that only 3 waves are complete thus far. Expectations would be for the ES to put in a small 4th wave correction followed by a 5th wave advance moving the market cleanly above 4680 to 4700. Should the ES break back below 4609 it would leave 3 waves up off of today’s low and again put a negative pall over the ES. Should it occur the ES would likely be on the way to the daily 200 MA which is at 4381.
September 25, 2022
Friday’s trade did as I suggested clear up the near term and directional questions. ...