Wednesday’s trade was a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” type of day. What I mean by that is back after the December FED meeting during the Chairman’s press conference it was made clear that there would be multiple rounds of tightening/tapering of interest rates during 2022. Then when the FED minutes of the same meeting were released today saying the same thing the ES dove lower to finish the day over 70 points lower. In any case, the reality may have sunk in and it hit the tech sector hard over the last two sessions. On an Elliott basis I have updated the count to include the Minor wave 2 now in progress. Thus far, it appears that waves a and b of 2 are complete with wave C in progress now. Over all though, the larger count has not changed. The ES remains in the process of tracing out the “C” wave of the Minor wave 2 correction. Today’s action was primarily the wave 3 of 3 – of “c”. This suggests that after a small 4th wave bounce higher an additional leg down to complete wave “C” is needed and should be expected to drop the ES below 4682. Additional support below current levels comes in at 4664, 4630 to 4605 and then 4575. The “do not break” line remains at 4520 and should that occur it would change the larger count and the implications for the ES moving forward.
January 6, 2022