Tuesday’s trade saw the ES move above 4800 reaching a high at 4808 before moving lower once the U.S. opened with the tech giants leading the way lower. The ES was off by more than 45 points at several times during the session. I have updated the count to show the completion of Minor wave 1 up with a Minor wave 2 correction in force now. For Wednesday, I discuss both the downside potential as well as the upside. What is likely to be expected should either occur and what technically will motivate either direction to press harder and move quicker — the key often lies with the Moving Averages. As I discussed yesterday if the ES were to break below the 20 MA and then the 50 MA it would create additional acceleration to the downside – that did occur. I also mentioned that a break of the 200 MA would also provide an additional round of downside acceleration and that would be expected should it occur during the corrective phase now underway. The structure for wave 2 will be an A-B-C. It appears that initial leg dow still needs additional legs down before the “B” wave bounce would begin — support for the entire Minor wave 2 comes in at 4753, 4740, 4698, 4664, and then 4630. Once complete the buyers would be expected to reemerge and begin to push prices higher with a purpose.
January 5, 2022