Friday’s expiration trade initially attempted to continue the rally and failed strongly on that effort. The balance of the session was favored to the downside. The pattern itself while not a complete 5 waves down, does show the process being in progress and likely subdividing within. I have labeled last Tuesday’s high(s) at 4328 in the ES and 13741 in the NQ as the completion point for minute wave 5, and in turn the Minor wave “C” and then the Intermediate wave A. All within the ongoing Primary wave B
This then suggests that the ES and the NQ are now tracing out the beginning stages of Intermediate wave B of Primary wave B. Initial Fibonacci support for this move should be found at the 50% retracement level at 12400 down to the 62% retracement level at 12090. Additional potential to drop to 11850 down to 11250 would remain but at this juncture only a possibility.
Based on an Intermediate wave B being in force suggests that pullbacks will be held to the hourly 8 and 20 MA’s. A more serious turn higher from current levels would have to kick into gear does not look back and moves back above 13600 in the NQ and 4275 in the ES.