Monday’s trade produced a more convincing bottom likely completing Minor wave 5 and in turn Intermediate wave 3 in both the NQ and ES. I have updated the labeling to reflect the completion point for both Minor 5 and Intermediate 3. I also include Fibonacci retracements for the expected Intermediate 4th wave bounces. Ultimately the A-B-C patterns could retrace back to the 3800 area in the ES and 11675 for the NQ. Those numbers will be revised as the pattern rolls out.
I also discuss the longer-term picture with respect to the Primary C wave decline in force off of the 13741 high in the NQ and 4328 in the ES. If yesterday’s Globex low completed Intermediate wave 3 of Primary 5, the Intermediate 4th wave will lead to an additional stronger leg down. Intermediate wave 5 could also be an extended wave. I review the Fibonacci extensions for Primary wave C. The current count in both markets suggests we may be 50 to 60% complete with the larger Cycle A wave decline — Primary C will eventually put in the bottom for Cycle A. Thus far the area of the previous 4th wave – that being the Primary 4 waves that bottomed in March 2020.
For tomorrow, expectations are for the A-B- C Intermediate 4th waves to continue.