Tuesday’s trade produced additional confusion as to what the heck the NQ and ES are up to. After shooting for the moon early in the session, both the NQ and ES took a tumble after the PMI data was released. This brought about some thoughts as to what exactly is to be expected from the FED tomorrow and as an Elliott Wave analyst what the heck are the NQ and ES forming. So, let’s start with the structures. Previously I have discussed the potential for a double or triple A-B-C pattern being in process to complete the Intermediate wave 2. After the quick dive lower today, it basically disqualified the current move being a Minor C wave up to complete the Intermediate wave 2 and the disqualifications came due to the “look and feel” of what would be labeled as minute wave 4 Minor C. While the structure itself was/is a clean a-b-c on its own, the size was out of proportion to what would be labeled as minute wave 2. Therefore, the Minor degree triple A-B-C come into play. Within the third A-B-C in both the NQ and ES, it appears that waves A and possibly B are complete with the markets ready to move higher in minute C waves to complete the Minor C waves.
I also discuss the Fibonacci extensions for minute wave C and also the Fibonacci extensions for the Minor C wave to complete the Intermediate 2nd waves.
Tomorrow is FED decision day — and we will know what is at play and what to expect for the balance of the upside moves. The decision will be announced at 2 PM EDT with the press conference with Chairman Powell starting at 2:3o PM EDT. All should be made clear as to the near-term direction and likely the direction for the balance of 2022.