Thursday’s trade started off weaker with a quick drop followed by a slow but very consistent push to the upside. The last hour saw a much stronger push that reached above 12883 resistance and just above at 12903. I have made a major labeling change on the NQ. I have discussed at least once before the potential that the NQ off of the 15268 high could be showing that the low at 11491 completed Minor wave 1 of Intermediate 3. I’ve made that adjustment to the chart, which carries some additional implications:
- The NQ is now tracing out a Minor wave 2 correction, where it appears that wave A of 2 is complete or nearly so.
- The overall pattern for wave 2 would be an A-B-C zigzag pattern, suggesting and pointing to an additional 5 waves up in a “C” of 2 that carries the potential for reach resistance at 13380 to 13825 and the overall move would still be considered “countertrend” and corrective.
- Once Minor wave 2 is complete it then suggests that the NQ would still put in a much stronger, more destructive Minor wave 3 decline.
- Intermediate wave 3 would still be expected to find support to complete in the sub 10K levels.
For tomorrow, if it’s Friday it must be another weekly expiration. Much of today’s gains are likely to attributable to tomorrow’s expiration cycle. From the close at 12896 the NQ still has room to rally up to resistance at 12934. The daily 50 is above at 13045 and I would suspect that level would hold and complete wave A and be the launchpad for a “B” wave smaller decline. However, having said all of that — I won’t attempt to put any parameters around where the top may or may not come in. A break above 13045, (hourly 50 MA) would clear the path for an attempt to get up to 13380. Play the price action and use the Fibonacci resistance and moving averages as guides.
Ultimately, should a Minor wave 2 be in play here — it has the potential to reach resistance at 13380 and also as high as 13825 before a crushing Minor wave 3 decline takes over.