May 4, 2022

NASDAQ 100 / Elliott Wave Update 5/04/2022 by Michael Filighera

Wednesday’s trade was volatile somewhat predictable, and it is changing the Elliott count and labeling.  First and foremost, the change does not reverse anything that already is in place.  In other words, the longer-term count, the larger degree count remains unchanged.  The NQ is still tracing out an Intermediate wave 3 decline.  What changes and puts an extension and more support on the intensity and depth of Intermediate wave 3.  Within Intermediate wave 3, there will be 5 waves of Minor degree and that the 12709 low now marks the completion point for Minor wave 1. That then suggests the rally off that low is part of a Minor wave 2 corrective bounce.

It is important to remember that the Elliott count is fluid because it is in motion every day — the count gets extended as dictated by the price action.  The changes made again do not negate the larger wave count nor does it change the downside targets.  Granted it is/was a large rally today, but as a second wave on a minute level it broke the rule of wave 2 not overlapping the starting point for wave 1. So, the minute level needed to be adjusted – not the larger decline in progress.  Going up a degree brought me to the Minor degree and that is where I moved the wave 1 count lower.  The subdivisions I had previously counted were no longer valid on today’s break above 13542 – even though the NQ is back below that level.  Remember, I talk about the “look and feel” of a wave — it has to look right in the context of what is taking place.

For tomorrow, a continued pullback would not be totally unexpected, but the pattern does suggest additional upside is likely.  The Fibonacci retracement levels come in at 13688, 13991 and then 14293, with the zone from 13991 to 14293 having the greater probability of being in play to finish the corrective wave 2.