Wednesday’s PPI number came in at 9.5% inflation, which initially produced a somewhat negative reaction from the markets that ended up producing a more bullish reaction once the US opened. I have adjusted the labeling because the subdivisions become to many with the today’s trade beginning to show the potential for a sub sub minute degree, which for me would be too much. So, the change is that I have moved the initial Minor wave one down to Monday’s low at 13903 with Tuesday’s and today’s trading being waves a and b of Minor wave 2 and wave c still in progress. It doesn’t really change the intensity of the decline or the depth. Initial Fibonacci extensions continue to suggest that the larger Intermediate wave 3 should find support to complete below 10,000 at the 9063 area. Tomorrow is the monthly expiration for April options since Friday is a holiday with the US markets closed. I’m feeling then that today’s bullishness is most likely connected to Thursday’s expiration cycle. For Thursday I would expect wave “C” of Minor 2 to continue higher likely reaching the hourly 200 MA currently at 14390. Ultimately, once finished the Minor wave 3 decline should kick in and again begin to drive the NQ lower with an increase in acceleration.
May 16, 2022
Monday’s trade was a day of “wallowing” – the ES put in session highs ...