April 6, 2022

NASDAQ 100 / Elliott Wave Update 4/06/2022 by Michael Filighera

Wednesday’s trade followed through to the downside as expected.  The NQ did break several Fibonacci support levels before putting in session lows just above the 14380 level.  The small off the lows did give a glimmer of 14394 possibly being the completion point for the “C” wave of the Minor “B” wave in progress.  But the rally fizzled leaving open the potential and likely the creation of a 5th wave of “C” down.  Additional support starts at 14380 and run down to 14100 which is where there is overlap between wave “C” of Minor “B” and the total Minor “B” itself.  If scenario one is to continue holding the “first” position, the NQ would need to start to rally off the low and move back above 14500 without much hesitation or problems as the NQ moves higher to trace out the Minor “C” wave advance to cap off the Intermediate wave 2 corrective bounce.

A continued break down below 14100 would give support to scenario two being in force – where the high at 15268 becomes the completion point for Intermediate wave 2 with Intermediate wave 3 being underway off that level.  If this is the case I can suggest that the drop down to 14725 was Minor wave 1 of  Intermediate 3 with the high at 15198 being wave 2 of 3.  Then the drop thus far off of the 15198 high is the first leg down to kick off the Minor wave 3 of Intermediate 3 decline.  And if this is the case the NQ would be a downdraft that with more certainty feel somewhat “crash” like.  Support for the move continues at 13816, 13363, 12909 to 12264, and then 11443 (where a Fibonacci level would mark wave 3 = wave 1). While it could contain the downside – I would look for the total Intermediate 3rd wave to drop the NQ to 10537, 9975, and ultimately to 9069 before an Intermediate 4th wave bounce takes over.