Tuesday’s trade was a bit of a surprise in that during Globex the NQ rallied strongly against the backdrop of an ease in the tensions surrounding the possible threat of the Russian military moving into the Ukraine. The move itself did not break any Elliott rules, but it did put a pause in how I was labeling the decline thus far. The larger pattern remains intact as well as the one degree higher count in that the NQ is dropping within the beginning stages of a Minor degree 3rd wave. As I have discussed previously a 3rd wave is most often the longest and the strongest within a 5 wave impulse move. While the decline did take place it really hasn’t up to this point shown stronger acceleration or strength to the downside. As I have also discussed this raised the possibility that within Minor wave 3 what I have been labeling as minute waves would end up being subminute degree with the low at 14031 being the completion point for minute wave 1. I have made that change after today’s trade. So, long story short, the NQ complete minute wave 1 at 14031 and remains within a minute wave 2 correction. Resistance to complete wave 2 comes in at 14596 and 14671 with additional Fibonacci resistance at 14761. Once complete expectations remain for a stronger more persistent decline in the form a minute wave 3 of Minor wave 3 or “3 of 3” move. Again, this move would be expected to take out the 14031 low as well as the 13706 low and most likely find support to complete below 13360, with next levels coming in at 13093, 12845, and then 12188.
February 15, 2022