January 13, 2022

NASDAQ 100 / Elliott Wave Update 1/13/2022 by Michael Filighera

Thursday’s trade was very revealing to our near term picture.  The NQ did give the rally a good try but it did fail.  The failure brought out several rounds of sellers which eventually swamped the four major indexes creating what I call a “Billy Graham” sell off. Back to the NQ – the market did break below a few “no break” zones the first was the break of the hourly 50 MA.  This happened just before the NQ broke below the hourly 200 MA, 20, 8 and 4 MA’s. The acceleration was already in motion as the market passed thru the 50 MA.  Next up was support at 15734 and the final break was below at 15475.  The break below 15475 did bring about the change to the current count and labeling.  While I still am looking at the entire move off of the all time high at 16768 as an Intermediate wave 4 correction it is creating a more complex structure.  I have updated the labeling off of Monday’s 15152 low from a building 5 wave structure to a 3 wave a-b-c to form an “X” wave within the larger correction.  Along with today’s breaks of support and MA’s suggests that the move is more likely to take the NQ down to support at the 14410 area.  I’ve added Fibonacci extensions to indicate support for the move down.  Again, if the market has intentions of kicking the upside into gear – it will need to do it by clearly overwhelming the sellers in size and intensity/persistence of the same degree as the sellers had today.  The NQ would need to break and close above the hourly 200 MA at 15884 to negate downside for now.