January 29, 2023

Eye of the Storm Podcast – SPX, NDX, ZB, ZN, ZF, ZT, GC, SI, $DXY 1/29/2023 by Michael Filighera

Today’s Podcast is a Big Picture Update for the equity markets, treasury markets, precious metals, and the dollar index. I update the SPX and NDX cash markets after last weeks continued strong rallies. The counts will in my view be made clear on Wednesday as the world awaits the latest action by the FED. The narrative spreading like a wild fire is that the FED will slow the pace again with a 25 bps hike. This against the backdrop of several FED governors hitting the talking circuits warning “investors” on irrational exuberance. Thus far market players are not buying into that thought.

The Treasuries are also at a near term juncture of continuing the countertrend rallies or finishing “internal B waves” with a quick trip back to the 4% levels in the 30 yr bond and 10 yr notes. Ultimately, I am looking for bond prices to continue higher, (yields lower) before the next downside slide in bond prices with a rise in rates.

Gold appears to finally be pushing higher within the context of an Elliott 3rd wave — I give Fibonacci extensions and update the count – both suggest wave 3 completing around the 2000 level. Silver is stuck in a rut and is not participating in the metals rally. This presents some questions as to what is happening in silver — I will attempt to work that out for the next podcast.

The Dollar index continues to sit around the 101 to 102 area, but the current count continues to suggest a break below 100 before a short to mid term bottom is reached.