January 21, 2023

Eye of the Storm Podcast – Big Picture Update, SPX, NDX, ZB, ZN, ZF, ZT, GC, SI, $DXY 1/21/2023 by Michael Filighera

In today’s podcast I spend some time discussing Friday’s expiration within the markets and the stronger push higher.  I bring some detail of what is actually happening and how the moves are not likely bullish or bearish but wrapped around derivatives and the addition of expiration cycles that in the equity indexes and treasuries are every day and within the balance of the equity, treasury, precious metals, and US$ are weekly, monthly and quarterly.  This has added multiple layers of volatility to the markets and that translates into premium in the options.  There are many algorithms that are programmed to scan and find the premium creating large positions along the way.

I spend some time with the SPX and NDX working from the weekly and daily charts to the 4 and 1 hour charts to explain the moves and what we might expect or look for next week.  The Treasuries have also seen an uptick in volatility particularly in the 30 year bond market.

Gold has picked up the rally again and expectations remain in place for an eventual move back above 2000.  Silver again is having trouble building and maintaining rallies.  I would still expect silver to rally most likely above 28 as gold picks up it’s run towards 2000.

The Dollar Index is presenting a more difficult position as the markets attempt to factor in the possibility of a recession here in the US and possibly global as well.  I’m not comfortable with my count as is — and will spend some time this week researching and reviewing this picture.